The ECB wage tracker updated with data up to October 2025 suggests easing wage growth and stability in early 2026, with coverage limited to a subset of employees. The forward-looking horizon extends to September 2026.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with wage agreements signed up to the beginning of October 2025. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of September 2026.
Preliminary data for the first three quarters of 2026 indicate lower and more stable wage growth, with employee coverage remaining limited. The latest wage tracker readings show negotiated wage growth of 4.7% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025 when smoothed for one-off payments, based on coverage of approximately 50% of employees in participating countries.
Unsmoothed data indicate growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. Excluding one-off payments, the growth rates are 4.2% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025. For the third quarter of 2026, the headline wage tracker stands at 2.2%, up from 1.8% in the first half of 2026. The coverage for this period is 19.4%, compared with 31.0% in the first half of 2026 and 47.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The data update includes wage agreements from Belgium and Austria and extends the forward-looking horizon to September 2026. The ECB notes that the wage tracker may be revised and should not be interpreted as a forecast. Deviations from actual wage growth are expected over time.
For a comprehensive assessment, refer to the September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate annual compensation growth of 3.4% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026 in the euro area.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for eight participating euro area countries on its Data Portal. The next data release, following the December 2025 Governing Council meeting, will be on December 19, 2025.
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