The ECB’s first quarter 2026 survey indicates unchanged inflation and unemployment expectations, with slight upward revision in GDP growth for 2026, and expectations for 2027 and beyond remaining stable.
The European Central Bank (ECB) released the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the first quarter of 2026. The survey shows that headline and core HICP inflation expectations remain unchanged across all horizons.
Expectations for headline inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), are 1.8% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028. These figures are unchanged from the previous survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, except for 2028, which was not included previously. Expectations for core HICP inflation are steady at 2.0% across all horizons, including the longer-term outlook for 2030.
Real GDP growth expectations are 1.2% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027, and 1.3% for 2028. The forecast for 2026 has been revised upward by 0.1 percentage points, mainly due to better-than-expected GDP data for the third quarter of 2025. Expectations for 2027 and the longer-term (2030) remain unchanged at 1.3%.
Unemployment rate expectations are 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, and 6.1% for 2028 and 2030. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 are unchanged, with a slight downward revision for the longer term.
These forecasts reflect the ECB’s assessment of economic conditions and are based on responses from professional forecasters across the euro area.
