Luis de Guindos, ECB Vice-President, discusses economic resilience, inflation, risks, and monetary policy considerations in an interview conducted on 6 February 2026.
Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), conducted an interview with Marta Vilar on 6 February 2026. He discussed the economic outlook, noting that the economy has proven more resilient than projected, with first-quarter growth likely exceeding expectations and inflation converging toward the ECB’s target.
He highlighted risks including geopolitical developments in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Iran, as well as increasing Chinese exports impacting inflation and growth. The current interest rate level is deemed appropriate, with an open-minded approach to future policy adjustments.
De Guindos emphasized that risks are balanced but downside risks may become more tangible sooner. He clarified that the term “good place” refers to the economy and inflation moving in the right direction, not a static state, and addressed market perceptions and communication clarity.
The Vice-President discussed market expectations for rate hikes, noting that the ECB’s stance has not changed since December, and that markets are influenced by ECB communications. He stated that the burden of proof for rate hikes is not necessarily lower than for cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach.
Regarding inflation data, he confirmed that January’s flash CPI figures aligned with expectations, with energy inflation lower than anticipated and services inflation on a declining trajectory. Lending conditions have shown marginal tightening, mainly affecting specific sectors, which is monitored closely.
He commented on geopolitical risks, noting that the situation has improved but remains volatile. The impact of Chinese exports on inflation is expected to take time to materialize, and projections remain consistent with current assumptions.
De Guindos discussed the influence of exchange rates, emphasizing the importance of the trade-weighted nominal rate and monitoring movements in other currencies. He addressed Europe’s fiscal policies, including Germany’s expansionary plans, stressing the need for continued fiscal consolidation signals to maintain market stability amid geopolitical tensions.
He expressed support for Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting his market knowledge and independence. Regarding succession at the ECB, he praised Governor Boris Vujčić’s experience and contributions, noting the importance of gender balance in future appointments.
For more details, visit the official ECB press release at ECB official website.
