The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for February 2026 shows stable inflation perceptions, slight decreases in inflation expectations, and improved economic outlooks amid ongoing market uncertainties. Results are based on responses collected between 5 February and 3 March 2026.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has published the results of its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for February 2026. The survey fieldwork was conducted between 5 February and 3 March 2026, with approximately 97% of responses recorded before the onset of the Middle East conflict on 28 February.
Compared to January 2026:
Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months stayed at 1.2%. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months decreased to 4.6%, from 4.9%. Expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased slightly to 3.5%.
Economic outlooks improved, with expectations for growth over the next 12 months becoming less negative at -0.9%, from -1.1%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased to 10.8%, from 11.0%. Lower-income households expected higher unemployment rates (13.1%) compared to higher-income households (9.2%).
Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.6% over the next year, slightly down from 3.7%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates remained at 4.7%. Lower-income households anticipate higher mortgage rates (5.5%) than higher-income households (4.2%).
The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions over the past 12 months declined, as did expectations for tighter credit in the coming year.
The next release of CES results is scheduled for 28 April 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
