The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for January 2026 shows decreased inflation perceptions, increased income growth expectations, stable economic outlook, and slight changes in housing and credit expectations.
The European Central Bank has published the consumer expectations survey results for January 2026. Key findings include a decrease in perceived inflation over the past 12 months from 3.2% to 3.0%, and a decline in inflation expectations for the next 12 months from 2.8% to 2.6%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.6%, while expectations for five years ahead decreased slightly to 2.3% from 2.4%.
Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 1.2%, driven mainly by higher-income households. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months remained at 4.9%, with expectations for the next 12 months unchanged at 3.4%.
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained at -1.1%, and expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months remained at 11.0%. Lower-income households expect higher unemployment rates (13.5%) than higher-income households (9.5%). Labour market sentiment improved, with employed respondents expecting a lower probability of job loss (8.2%) and unemployed respondents expecting a higher probability of finding a job (30.1%).
Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.7% over the next 12 months, slightly higher than December’s 3.6%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates remained at 4.7%. Lower-income households anticipate higher mortgage rates (5.4%) compared to higher-income households (4.2%). The share of households applying for credit in the past three months declined to 14.8% from 15.7%.
The ECB will release the February survey results on 27 March 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
