ECB consumer expectations survey results – July 2026

The European Central Bank has released the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results for July 2026.

Compared to June 2026:

• Median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months decreased to 3.5% from 3.6%.
• Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 2.9% from 3.0%, and expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Expectations for inflation five years ahead remained at 2.4%.
• Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged and higher than pre-Middle East war levels.
• Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months decreased to 1.0% from 1.1%.
• Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months was steady at 5.1%, and expected spending growth over the next 12 months remained at 3.6%.
• Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months improved to -1.2% from -1.4%, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months remained at 11.2%.
• Lower-income households expected higher unemployment rates (13.5%) than higher-income households (9.4%).
• Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, unchanged from June.
• Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months declined slightly to 4.9% from 5.0%.
• The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions over the past 12 months increased, while expectations for tighter credit over the next 12 months declined.
• The share of consumers who applied for credit in the past three months increased to 14.3% from 13.4% in April.

The next release of the Consumer Expectations Survey results is scheduled for 18 September 2026.

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