ECB consumer expectations survey results for March 2026

The European Central Bank has published the March 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey. Key findings include:

• Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months increased to 3.5% from 3.0% in February.
• Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 4.0%, and for three years ahead to 3.0%, both up from February.
• Inflation expectations for five years ahead increased slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%.
• Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months increased.
• Perceptions and expectations of inflation remained higher among lower-income groups and younger respondents.

Regarding income and consumption:

• Nominal income growth expectations remained at 1.2% for the next 12 months.
• Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months increased to 5.1% from 4.6%.
• Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months rose to 4.1%, the highest since May 2023.

Economic outlook and labor market expectations became more negative:

• Expected economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -2.1% from -0.9% in February.
• Expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 10.8%.
• Lower-income households expect higher unemployment rates (13.7%) than higher-income households (9.7%).

Housing and credit access expectations:

• Home price growth expectations increased slightly to 3.7% from 3.6%.
• Mortgage interest rate expectations rose to 4.9% from 4.7%.
• Lower-income households expect higher mortgage rates (5.5%) than higher-income households (4.3%).
• The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased, reaching levels last seen in April 2024.

The full microdata are available on the ECB website. The next survey results will be released on 1 June 2026.

For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.