ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – October 2025

The European Central Bank (ECB) published the results of the October 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES).

Compared with September 2025:

• Median perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained at 3.1% for the ninth consecutive month.
• Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 2.8% from 2.7%.
• Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.
• Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained stable.

Income and spending expectations:

• Nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 1.2% from 1.1%.
• Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months remained at 4.9%.
• Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months stayed at 3.5%, with slightly higher expectations among lower income quintiles.

Economic growth and labour market:

• Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, rising to -1.1% from -1.2%.
• Expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.0% from 10.7%.
• Lower-income households expected higher unemployment (13.2%) compared to higher-income households (9.4%).
• Respondents’ probability of finding a job in the next three months increased to 24.5%, while expected job loss decreased to 8.5%.

Housing and credit access:

• Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, unchanged from September.
• Expectations for mortgage interest rates rose to 4.7% from 4.6%.
• Lower-income households expect higher mortgage rates (5.4%) than higher-income households (4.2%).
• The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased, and the share applying for credit declined slightly to 15.7% from 16.0%.

The next release of the Consumer Expectations Survey results is scheduled for 8 January 2026.

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