ECB consumer expectations survey results – August 2026

The European Central Bank has published the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results for August 2026. Key findings include:

• Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months remained at 3.5%.
• Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.0% from 2.9% in July.
• Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead increased to 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
• Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months decreased but remained above pre-Middle East conflict levels.
• Inflation perceptions and expectations are higher among lower-income respondents and lower among younger respondents aged 18-34.

Regarding income and consumption:

• Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained at 1.0%, higher in the bottom income quintile (1.7%) than in the top (0.7%).
• Perceived nominal spending growth increased slightly to 5.2% from 5.1%, with expectations remaining at 3.6%.

For the economic outlook and labor market:

• Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remained at -1.2%.
• The expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased to 11.0% from 11.2% in July.
• Households in the bottom income quintile expect a higher unemployment rate (13.4%) than those in the top quintile (9.4%).

Housing and credit expectations:

• Expected home price increase over the next 12 months remained at 3.4%, higher in the lowest income quintile (4.0%) than in the highest (3.2%).
• Mortgage interest rate expectations remained at 4.9%, with lower expectations in the top income quintile (4.4%) and higher in the bottom (5.7%).
• The net percentage of households reporting tightening credit conditions declined compared to July.

The next release of the survey results is scheduled for 23 October 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.