The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for January 2026 shows decreased inflation perceptions, increased income expectations, stable economic growth outlook, and slight changes in housing and credit expectations.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has released the consumer expectations survey results for January 2026. Key findings include a decrease in perceived inflation over the past 12 months from 3.2% to 3.0%, and a decline in inflation expectations for the next 12 months from 2.8% to 2.6%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.6%, while expectations for five years ahead decreased slightly to 2.3% from 2.4%.
Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months increased slightly to 1.2%, driven mainly by higher-income households. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months remained at 4.9%, with expectations for the next 12 months stable at 3.4%.
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at -1.1%, and expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months stayed at 11.0%. Lower-income households expect a higher unemployment rate (13.5%) compared to higher-income households (9.5%). Labour market sentiment improved, with employed respondents expecting a lower probability of job loss (8.2%) and unemployed respondents expecting a higher chance of finding a job (30.1%).
Housing expectations indicate a 3.7% increase in home prices over the next 12 months, slightly higher than December. Expectations for mortgage interest rates remained at 4.7%, with lower-income households expecting higher rates (5.4%) than higher-income households (4.2%). The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased, and the share of households applying for credit declined to 14.8% in January from 15.7% in October.
The ECB will release the February survey results on 27 March 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
