The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for June 2026 shows decreased inflation perceptions, improved income expectations, and stable labor market outlooks compared to May 2026.
The European Central Bank has released the June 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey. Key findings include a significant decrease in perceived inflation over the past 12 months, from 4.0% in May to 3.6% in June, and a decline in inflation expectations over the next 12 months, from 3.5% to 3.0%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead slightly decreased to 2.8%, while expectations five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.4%.
Uncertainty about inflation expectations decreased but remained higher than pre-Middle East war levels. Lower-income and younger respondents reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations.
Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, while perceived spending growth over the past 12 months decreased to 5.1%. Expected spending growth over the next 12 months declined slightly to 3.6%.
Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months improved to -1.4% from -1.7%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased to 11.2%, with lower-income households expecting higher unemployment (13.8%) and higher-income households expecting lower (9.7%). The outlook suggests a broadly stable labor market.
Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, slightly lower than May. Expectations for mortgage interest rates increased to 5.0%. Lower-income households expect higher mortgage rates (5.8%) than higher-income households (4.4%). The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions declined.
The detailed data are available on the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey webpage. The next survey results will be released on 21 August 2026.
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