ECB consumer expectations survey results – September 2026

The European Central Bank has published the September 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey. Key findings include:

• Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August.
• Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0%, while expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively.
• Uncertainty about inflation expectations increased, remaining above pre-Middle East conflict levels.
• Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, with higher expectations in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) compared to the top (1.2%).
• Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months was 5.3%, with expected growth over the next 12 months at 3.7%.
• Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5% from -1.2% in August.
• Expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%, with the bottom income quintile expecting the highest rate (13.6%) and the top the lowest (9.7%).
• Consumers expect home prices to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, with expectations higher in the lowest income quintile (4.0%) than in the highest (3.2%).
• Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, with lower expected rates in the top income quintile (4.4%) compared to the bottom (5.7%).
• The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit conditions increased both over the past 12 months and for the upcoming year.

The detailed microdata are available on the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey web page. The next survey release is scheduled for 27 November 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.