The European Central Bank has published its June 2026 projections for the euro area economy, energy commodity prices, inflation, and financial conditions, based on market expectations and latest data as of May 21, 2026.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has released its outlook for the euro area economy as of June 2026, including projections for energy commodity prices, inflation, and macroeconomic variables.
Energy price projections are based on spot prices and futures curves as of June 15, 2026, with baseline, adverse, severe, and milder scenarios illustrated for oil, gas, electricity, and the Synthetic Energy Commodity Price Index (SECPI).
The June 2026 baseline assumptions for oil prices are USD 69.1 in 2025, USD 96.9 in 2026, and USD 82.2 in 2027. Natural gas prices are projected at EUR 36.2/MWh in 2025, rising to EUR 45.6/MWh in 2026. Wholesale electricity prices are forecasted at EUR 83.6/MWh in 2025, increasing to EUR 89.3/MWh in 2026.
Macroeconomic projections include real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and 1.6% in 2028. Inflation (HICP) is expected at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, with core inflation projections at 2.5%, 2.7%, and 2.3%, respectively.
The report also details financial conditions, including interest rates, sovereign spreads, and credit flows, based on data up to April 2026. Risks to inflation and growth are assessed through surveys of monetary analysts and ECB expectations.
For more detailed information, refer to the official ECB publication available at the provided URL.
