The European Central Bank released its economic outlook on September 23, 2026, covering energy commodity prices, inflation, GDP growth, and financial conditions in the euro area.
The European Central Bank (ECB) published its economic outlook on September 23, 2026, during a lecture at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) in Geneva.
The report includes developments and scenarios for energy commodity prices, with projections based on futures market data up to September 22, 2026. It presents synthetic energy commodity price indices (SECPI) for baseline and scenario analyses for 2026-2028.
Energy prices, including oil in euros, refining margins, and transport fuels, are analyzed alongside exchange rates, commodity prices, and inflation expectations. The outlook discusses inflation projections, including HICP inflation, energy inflation, and food inflation, with drivers and short-term deviations highlighted.
The ECB’s macroeconomic projections include real GDP growth, unemployment rates, private consumption, government expenditure, and trade volumes, with updates compared to previous projections in June 2026. The report also covers fiscal developments, including government deficits and fiscal stance, as well as financial conditions such as interest rates, bank funding costs, and market expectations.
Additional analyses address the role of wealth in consumption, trade in AI-related goods, and the impact of monetary policy adjustments on economic growth and inflation. The full report is available at the provided URL.
