The European Central Bank presents its economic outlook for the euro area as of March 2026, including baseline and adverse scenarios, energy supply disruptions, commodity prices, inflation expectations, and consumer confidence.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has published its economic outlook for the euro area as of March 25, 2026. The report includes baseline, adverse, and severe scenarios considering energy supply disruptions, commodity price shocks, and geopolitical risks.
The baseline scenario assumes no significant destruction of energy infrastructure and follows latest technical assumptions for energy prices, with no additional policy changes beyond existing measures. The adverse scenario considers increased energy disruptions and a VIX index increase of 10 points, with a quick recovery in Q3 2026. The severe scenario involves more severe disruptions and a VIX increase of 14 points, with prolonged elevated volatility until the end of 2027.
Commodity prices, especially oil, are projected based on ECB assumptions, with energy shocks reaching medium-sized thresholds. Uncertainty impacts on real GDP growth and inflation are simulated using ECB models, indicating potential deviations in growth and inflation rates under adverse and severe scenarios.
The report also covers developments in consumer confidence, PMI activity, market-based inflation expectations, and wage growth indicators, providing a comprehensive assessment of economic risks and outlook for the euro area.
For full details, see the official ECB publication at ECB outlook for the euro area economy as of March 2026.
