The European Central Bank released its economic and monetary policy outlook for the euro area in June 2026, including projections for energy prices, inflation, GDP growth, and scenario analyses.
The European Central Bank (ECB) published its outlook for the euro area economy and monetary policy in June 2026. The report includes projections for energy commodity prices, inflation, GDP growth, and labor market developments.
Energy price projections are based on spot prices and futures as of 19 June 2026, with scenarios for baseline, adverse, severe, and milder conditions. Inflation forecasts incorporate these energy prices and other factors, with short-term inflation expectations and revisions provided.
The outlook for real GDP growth in 2026 is detailed, with contributions from components such as consumption, investment, and net exports. The report also discusses uncertainties related to geopolitical conflicts, energy supply constraints, and market volatility.
Scenario analyses explore the potential impacts of Middle East conflict developments on energy prices and inflation, assuming no policy changes. The projections are based on data cut-off dates of 21 May 2026 and market-implied probability distributions.
Further details and specific numerical projections are available in the full report at the ECB’s official website.
