The European Central Bank’s 2026 Convergence Report assesses progress of five countries towards euro adoption, highlighting economic resilience, inflation, fiscal challenges, and legislative compatibility issues.
The European Central Bank has published its 2026 Convergence Report, evaluating the progress of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden towards adopting the euro. The report indicates limited progress in economic convergence since 2024, with external shocks such as geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility impacting these countries.
Despite external challenges, economic activity has shown resilience, though growth rates vary. Inflation trends are mixed: Romania’s inflation exceeds the 2.7% reference value, while the Czech Republic and Sweden are below it. Hungary and Poland have inflation rates above the reference, but not as high as Romania.
The fiscal situation has deteriorated in most countries, with Hungary, Poland, and Romania exceeding the 3% GDP deficit threshold in 2025. Debt-to-GDP ratios remain below 60% in most cases, but projections indicate increases in Poland and Romania by 2026. Excessive deficit procedures are active in Romania, Hungary, and Poland, with deadlines extending to 2026-2030.
Regarding exchange rate stability, none of the countries participate in ERM II, and some currencies have experienced significant fluctuations against the euro. Long-term interest rates are above the 5.1% reference in Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
The quality of institutions and governance remains an area for improvement, with most countries not fully aligned with the legal requirements for euro adoption. Legislative compatibility issues persist across all five countries.
For further information, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
