The European Central Bank’s survey of professional forecasters for Q2 2026 indicates upward revisions in near-term inflation expectations and downward revisions in GDP growth for 2026 and 2027, with unchanged unemployment rate expectations.
The European Central Bank (ECB) released the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026.
Expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were revised up for 2026 and 2027, at 2.7% and 2.1% respectively, and remained at 2.0% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were higher than in the previous survey, while expectations for 2028 were unchanged.
Core HICP inflation expectations, excluding energy and food, were revised up to 2.2% for 2026 and 2027, and 2.1% for 2028. Expectations for 2030 remained unchanged at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.
Real GDP growth expectations were revised down to 1.0% for 2026, 1.3% for 2027, and 1.3% for 2028. Compared to the previous survey, expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage points for 2026 and 0.1 percentage points for 2027, mainly due to the expected negative impact of higher energy prices related to the Middle East conflict. Longer-term GDP growth expectations remained at 1.3%.
Unemployment rate expectations were unchanged, with forecasts of 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, 6.1% for 2028, and the same for 2030.
