The European Central Bank’s survey of professional forecasters for Q3 2026 indicates unchanged headline inflation expectations, revised up for 2027, and downward revisions in GDP growth for 2026-2027, with slight increases in unemployment rate expectations.
The European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2026 reports that headline inflation expectations remain broadly unchanged, at 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028. Expectations for 2027 increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
Core inflation expectations, measured by HICPX, stand at 2.4% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 were revised up by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with recent data, while expectations for 2027 and 2028 remained unchanged. Longer-term expectations for 2031 remain at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.
Respondents expect real GDP growth of 0.6% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.3% in 2028. These forecasts were revised downward by 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 0.1 percentage points for 2027, with no change for 2028. Longer-term growth expectations for 2031 are revised down to 1.2%.
Unemployment rate expectations increased slightly, with forecasts of 6.3% for 2026 and 2027, declining to 6.2% in 2028 and 6.1% in the longer term.
Responses to a special question regarding the Middle East conflict indicated limited expected indirect and second-round effects, mainly concentrated in 2026. The balance of inflation risks was tilted somewhat to the upside in 2026 and more balanced thereafter.
