The ECB wage tracker indicates that negotiated wage growth is easing in 2026, with projections stabilizing around 2.6%. Data covers agreements signed up to February 2026, with the horizon extending to December 2026.
The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which monitors active collective bargaining agreements across participating countries, has been updated with agreements signed up to the end of February 2026. The forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at the end of December 2026.
Available data indicates that negotiated wage growth will stabilize at around 2.6% by the end of 2026. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments shows 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The smoothed version reports 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points for 2026 compared to February 2026 data.
The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments, is better suited for quarterly or monthly dynamics, while the unsmoothed version reflects yearly trends. In 2026, the quarterly averages are 1.9% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2, 2.5% in Q3, and 2.6% in Q4, mainly due to statistical effects rather than new wage pressures.
The unsmoothed tracker indicates a more stable outlook, with quarterly averages around 2.9% in Q1, 2.6% in Q2, 2.4% in Q3, and 2.5% in Q4. Coverage of employees is projected at 44.1% in Q1, decreasing to 36.3% in Q4. The forward-looking horizon remains until December 2026, with plans to extend to the first quarter of 2027 in July 2026.
It is important to note that the ECB wage tracker may be revised and does not constitute a forecast. It reflects available data on active collective bargaining agreements and does not account for other factors influencing labor costs, such as employment composition, bonuses, or hours worked. For a comprehensive outlook, refer to the March 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections indicating a 3.4% growth in compensation per employee in 2026.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine euro area countries on its Data Portal. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
