The ECB wage tracker projects a 2.7% negotiated wage growth in the first half of 2027, with coverage increasing as new agreements are signed. Data updated through August 2026 and extended to June 2027.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker, covering active collective bargaining agreements signed up to the end of August 2026. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of June 2027.
Negotiated wage growth is projected at 2.7% for the first half of 2027, with employee coverage at 28.8%, expected to increase as more wage agreements are signed over time.
The ECB wage tracker, which includes smoothed one-off payments, indicates a 2.2% pressure in 2026 based on 46.9% employee coverage. The headline indicator stands at 2.7% in Q1 2027 (32.5% coverage) and 2.8% in Q2 2027 (25.1% coverage).
Compared to July 2026 data, the 2026 wage tracker was revised downward slightly, with broad stability in the later quarters despite increased employee coverage. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments decreased from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, with the average at 2.6% for 2026, indicating limited influence of one-off payments.
The quarterly indicators are 2.7% in Q1 2027 and 2.8% in Q2 2027. The headline tracker better reflects quarterly wage dynamics, while the unsmoothed version is more suitable for annual comparisons.
The extended forward-looking horizon now covers until June 2027, with future updates expected to extend to the third quarter of 2027 in November 2026 and the full year of 2027 in December 2026, as new agreements are signed and coverage increases.
Employee coverage for 2026 was 46.9%, decreasing to 32.5% in Q1 2027 and 25.1% in Q2 2027, but expected to rise as new agreements are negotiated. Coverage levels are similar to those in September 2025.
The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker may be revised and that the forward-looking component is not a forecast but reflects current available data. Deviations over time are expected. For a comprehensive view, refer to the September 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate a 3.3% yearly growth rate in compensation per employee for 2026.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine euro area countries on its Data Portal, each providing different insights into negotiated wage growth and employee coverage.
For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
