The European Central Bank’s wage tracker shows negotiated wage pressures of 2.7% in Q1 2027, with the forward-looking horizon extended to March 2027, indicating stability in wage negotiations.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with data from collective bargaining agreements signed up to the first week of July 2026. The forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of March 2027.
The tracker indicates negotiated wage pressures with smoothed one-off payments of 2.3% in 2026 (covering 44.3% of employees) and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (covering 28.4%).
The horizon will be further extended to the second quarter of 2027 in the September 2026 data release, as new agreements are signed and coverage increases.
Compared to June 2026 data, the overall assessment of wage pressures for 2026 remains unchanged. The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments, shows stable pressures, with 2.7% in Q1 2027.
The ECB also provides an unsmoothed version, indicating stable negotiated wage growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in Q1 2027. Both measures suggest limited influence of one-off payments at year-end.
Wage growth in 2026 averaged 1.8% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2, and 2.6% in Q3 and Q4, reflecting the fading impact of large one-off payments made in 2024. The coverage of employees decreased from 47.0% in Q1 2026 to 28.4% in Q1 2027.
The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker is subject to revision and should not be interpreted as a forecast. For comprehensive wage development, refer to the June 2026 Eurosystem projections indicating a 3.2% annual growth rate.
The ECB publishes four indicators on its Data Portal, including measures with smoothed and unsmoothed one-off payments, and the share of employees covered.
For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
