The ECB wage tracker shows stable negotiated wage growth around 2.6% in 2026, with the forward-looking horizon extending to the first quarter of 2027. Data covers agreements signed up to end-May 2026.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker with wage agreements signed up to the end of May 2026. The forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at the end of December 2026.
The tracker indicates that negotiated wage growth is expected to remain stable at around 2.6% by the end of 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments, projects growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
The ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments shows 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, based on coverage of 51.5% and 43.2% of employees, respectively. The unsmoothed version indicates 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, with coverage of 46.4% in Q1 decreasing to 40.4% in Q4.
The tracker suggests that negotiated wage growth in 2026 will average around 2.9% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second, and 2.5% in the third and fourth quarters, reflecting a stabilization of base wages. The coverage of employees in the participating countries varies quarterly, from 46.4% to 40.4%.
The forward-looking horizon remains until December 2026 but will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 release, as new agreements are signed and coverage increases. The ECB emphasizes that the wage tracker is subject to revision and should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it reflects available data on active collective bargaining agreements.
For a comprehensive assessment, refer to the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, which estimate a 3.2% yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for nine participating euro area countries on its Data Portal. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.
